United States vs Paraguay Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets
United States vs Paraguay | World Cup 2026 Group D | Matchday 2
Date: Saturday 13 June 2026 | Kickoff: 01:00 BST (18:00 local, UTC-7)
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles (Inglewood), USA
Stage: Group D, Matchday 2
TV/Streaming (UK): ITV / BBC
Why This Game Matters
With both sides entering Matchday 2, the points arithmetic is straightforward: a United States win would put the co-hosts in a commanding position to advance from Group D, while Paraguay, returning to a World Cup for the first time since 2010, cannot afford to fall further behind and still harbour realistic hopes of progressing. Three points here would effectively set the agenda for the group’s final round of fixtures.
Our Pick
United States to win at 1/1 carries fair value for a home side with superior European club depth, tournament momentum, and the advantage of a partisan SoFi Stadium crowd. Paraguay will defend resolutely under Gustavo Alfaro, but the United States’ attacking firepower at home points to a narrow but clear victory.
United States vs Paraguay: Preview, Picks & Betting Odds
The United States arrive as the tournament’s co-hosts and, despite mixed pre-tournament friendly results, carry genuine quality through their squad. Christian Pulisic (86 caps, 33 goals) leads an attacking group that includes Ricardo Pepi, Folarin Balogun and Timothy Weah, while Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie provide the pressing engine in midfield. Mauricio Pochettino’s system demands high intensity, and on home turf in front of a sold-out Californian crowd, that energy will be amplified.
Paraguay, under coach Gustavo Alfaro, are not here to be rolled over. Their CONMEBOL qualifying run produced a solid defensive record, and a 4-4-2 shape built around captain Gustavo Gómez is designed to frustrate and then hurt opponents on the counter. Miguel Almirón provides the craft from wide areas, and Julio Enciso and Antonio Sanabria give the attack different dimensions. Alfaro sides are organised, physical and dangerous from set pieces.
The gap in squad depth and home advantage tips the balance firmly towards the United States, yet Paraguay’s disciplined structure means this is unlikely to be a comfortable stroll. Expect the United States to create chances, though converting them against a settled Paraguayan block will require patience and precision.
Recent Form and Trends
United States – last five matches:
- Portugal (H): Lost 0-2 (Friendly, March 2026)
- Belgium (H): Lost 2-5 (Friendly, March 2026)
- Uruguay (H): Won 5-1 (Friendly, November 2025)
- Paraguay (H): Won 2-1 (Friendly, November 2025)
- Australia (H): Won 2-1 (Friendly, October 2025)
The United States’ March 2026 friendlies against Portugal and Belgium raised eyebrows, but both opponents rank among Europe’s top sides and the fixtures served as high-intensity preparation. The earlier run of wins over Uruguay, Paraguay and Australia, all at home, shows the core capability remains intact.
Paraguay – last five matches:
- Morocco (N): Lost 1-2 (Friendly, March 2026)
- Greece (A): Won 1-0 (Friendly, March 2026)
- Mexico (N): Won 2-1 (Friendly, November 2025)
- United States (A): Lost 1-2 (Friendly, November 2025)
- South Korea (A): Lost 0-2 (Friendly, October 2025)
Paraguay’s results are patchy, with defeats to Morocco and South Korea offset by wins over Greece and Mexico. Three goals conceded in their last two outings is a slight concern for a side that relies on defensive solidity, though the 1-0 win in Greece showed Alfaro can set up his team to grind out results against organised opposition.
United States vs Paraguay History and Head to Head Trends
These two sides have met nine times in total, with the United States holding a clear advantage across all recorded meetings. The most relevant recent fixture came in November 2025, when the United States won 2-1 at home – providing a direct recent reference point for this World Cup encounter.
From the available head-to-head record, the United States have won on four occasions, with one draw and one loss in friendlies, plus a 1-0 Copa America victory in 2016. The pattern across meetings points to tight, low-scoring affairs where the United States tend to edge the margins.
Notably, when the two sides met at the 2007 Copa America, Paraguay won 3-1, a reminder that Paraguayan teams are capable of more than just defensive resilience when conditions and motivation align. That said, Paraguay have not faced the United States in a competitive fixture as intense as a home World Cup group stage match.
Injuries, Suspensions and Roster News
The United States have a largely fit and available group heading into Matchday 2. Mauricio Pochettino has Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie all in the squad, giving him his first-choice midfield and attacking options. The selection conversation centres on which striker profile to lead the line – Ricardo Pepi’s penalty-area instincts or Folarin Balogun’s pace-based running – rather than enforced absences.
There are depth questions at goalkeeper and central defence that have been noted throughout the pre-tournament period, but with Matt Turner as the senior option between the posts and Chris Richards and Miles Robinson available centrally, Pochettino has workable combinations. Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson give width and overlapping threat at fullback.
For Paraguay, Gustavo Alfaro has his full complement available. Gustavo Gómez marshals the back line as captain, with Júnior Alonso and Fabián Balbuena providing experience alongside him. Diego Gómez and Miguel Almirón are the key creative outlets in midfield, while Julio Enciso and Antonio Sanabria are expected to lead the attack. What has not been publicly confirmed is the precise starting lineup or any late injury developments, so the predicted XI below reflects the most likely selection based on squad depth and Alfaro’s tactical preferences.
Expected Lineups
United States (4-3-3): Turner; Dest, C. Richards, M. Robinson, A. Robinson; McKennie, T. Adams (c), Tillman; Weah, Pepi, Pulisic
Paraguay (4-4-2): Gatito Fernandez; J.J. Caceres, G. Gomez (c), Junior Alonso, Alderete; Almiron, D. Gomez, A. Cubas, R. Sosa; Enciso, Sanabria
Predicted lineups – squads to be confirmed closer to kickoff.
Key Matchup to Watch
The central duel that shapes this game is Diego Gómez against Tyler Adams in the middle of the park. Adams (54 caps, Bournemouth) is the United States’ pressing pivot, winning the ball high and disrupting buildup. Diego Gómez (Brighton and Hove Albion, 24 caps) is Paraguay’s most dynamic central figure, carrying the ball forward and threading passes into transition. If Adams can restrict Gómez’s time and space, Paraguay lose their primary link between defence and the Almirón-Enciso-Sanabria line. If Gómez operates freely, Paraguay become a significantly more threatening counter-attacking proposition, capable of exploiting any gaps left by the United States’ high defensive line.
Best Bets and Expert Picks
United States to win at 1/1. The United States at evens represents a reasonable market price for a co-host with genuine European club quality throughout the starting XI. They beat Paraguay 2-1 in November 2025 and Pochettino’s high-pressing system suits a home fixture where the crowd generates energy. The odds fairly reflect the difficulty of breaking down Alfaro’s organised block, but United States’ depth in attacking areas should be enough over 90 minutes.
Under 2.5 goals at 6/5. Paraguay’s qualifying record shows a defensively compact side – three goals conceded in six qualifiers (3W 2D 1L) – and their Copa America experience revealed a disciplined low-block that frustrates opponents. The United States’ recent friendlies produced a wide range of scorelines, but the November 2025 meeting finished 2-1 and the 2016 Copa America encounter ended 1-0. A total under 2.5 goals fits the pattern of tight United States-Paraguay meetings.
Christian Pulisic to score anytime. With 33 international goals in 86 caps, Pulisic is the United States’ primary attacking reference and the most likely source of the decisive moment. His club form at Milan, combined with his record as the national team’s highest-profile scorer, makes him the standout scorer selection in this fixture.
Paraguay +1 Asian handicap as a speculative fourth option. Alfaro sides are notoriously hard to put away, and if the United States fail to score early, Paraguay’s counter-threat through Almirón and Enciso is real. At a handicap of +1, Paraguay offer coverage in a scenario where the margin stays tight.
Betting Odds and Lines
The best available prices for United States vs Paraguay at the time of writing are below.
| Outcome | Best Price |
|---|---|
| United States Win | 1/1 |
| Draw | 5/2 |
| Paraguay Win | 10/3 |
Prices sourced from leading operators and correct at time of publication. Always check for the best available price before placing.
How to Watch and Where to Bet
How to Watch
United States vs Paraguay is available live in the UK on ITV and BBC, with streaming via their respective online platforms. Kickoff is at 01:00 BST on Saturday 13 June 2026.
How to Bet
Follow these steps to get your United States vs Paraguay bets on before kickoff.
- Compare the best available odds across leading operators for your chosen market.
- Log in or register with your preferred sportsbook.
- Search for United States vs Paraguay under the World Cup 2026 section.
- Select your market (match result, goals, scorer, or bet builder).
- Enter your stake.
- Check your potential returns before confirming.
- Add additional selections if building an accumulator.
- Confirm and submit your bet slip.
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