Paraguay vs Australia Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets
Paraguay vs Australia | World Cup 2026 Group D | Thursday 25 June 2026 | Kick-off: 19:00 local (02:00 BST 26 June) | Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara), USA | UK TV: ITV / ITVX
Group D standings heading into Matchday 3:
- United States: P2 W2 D0 L0 GD +5 — 6 pts
- Australia: P2 W1 D0 L1 GD 0 — 3 pts
- Paraguay: P2 W1 D0 L1 GD -2 — 3 pts
- Turkey: P2 W0 D0 L2 GD -3 — 0 pts
What’s at Stake
With both Paraguay and Australia on three points and level on wins and losses, this is effectively a knockout tie dressed in group-stage clothing. The winner almost certainly advances to the Round of 16 as Group D runners-up behind the United States; the loser, depending on goal difference and the Turkey vs United States result, risks elimination. Paraguay carry a goal-difference deficit of two going in, meaning a win is the cleaner route to safety for G. Alfaro’s side, while Australia under T. Popovic will know that even a draw could be enough if results go their way.
Verdict
The Paraguay vs Australia prediction here leans toward a tight, low-scoring contest that Australia shade on current tournament form, with the draw also live given both sides’ need to avoid defeat. Australia to win at 3/1 holds appeal as an each-way-style value play, but the more measured call is Under 2.5 goals at 4/6, anchored by Paraguay’s defensive resilience and the sheer stakes compelling both coaches to prioritise solidity.
Paraguay vs Australia Match Preview
Paraguay return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010, and the weight of that absence is palpable in how G. Alfaro has set his side up. They were pragmatic in beating Turkey 1-0 before being overrun 4-1 by the host United States; the defensive structure held against Turkey but was exposed by pace and intensity at the highest level. Against Australia, expect Paraguay to sit compact and look to hit on the counter through the energy of Julio Enciso and Miguel Almirón.
Australia began the tournament brightly, beating Turkey 2-0, before a 0-2 defeat to the United States exposed the gap between aspirational and elite. T. Popovic has built a structured, disciplined side that showed genuine quality in qualifying, winning all four matches with a goal difference of plus eight. Jackson Irvine’s industry in central midfield and the forward threat of Nestory Irankunda and Mathew Leckie give Australia a multi-dimensional attack that Paraguay’s defence will need to contain.
The Paraguay vs Australia betting odds tell a story: Australia are the marginal favourites at 3/1, with Paraguay at 2/1 and the draw at 5/4. That pricing reflects genuine uncertainty and a fixture where neither side can afford to lose. The value in the draw at 5/4 is real; a single goal could settle it either way, and both managers will be wary of throwing caution to the wind.
Team Form
Paraguay — Last Five
- Turkey (A): Won 1-0 — World Cup Group D
- United States (A): Lost 1-4 — World Cup Group D
- Nicaragua (H): Won 4-0 — Friendly
- Morocco (N): Lost 1-2 — Friendly
- Greece (A): Won 1-0 — Friendly
Paraguay’s competitive record shows a team that can grind out narrow wins — both their competitive victories here came by a single goal. The 4-1 defeat to the United States remains the outlier; against more measured opposition, Alfaro’s side have been difficult to break down.
Australia — Last Five
- United States (A): Lost 0-2 — World Cup Group D
- Turkey (H): Won 2-0 — World Cup Group D
- Switzerland (N): Drew 1-1 — Friendly
- Mexico (N): Lost 0-1 — Friendly
- Curacao (H): Won 5-1 — FIFA Series
Australia’s form across all competitions carries more variety, but their qualifying record of four wins from four, including victories over Japan and Saudi Arabia, demonstrated a side with genuine discipline and forward momentum. The United States defeat came against a team on a different level; this match is a far more even proposition.
Paraguay vs Australia Head to Head
These two nations have met five times, all in friendly fixtures, and Australia hold a slight historical edge. Australia won 1-0 in October 2010 and 2-1 in June 2000, with the other three meetings producing draws — two 0-0s in June 2000 and a 1-1 in October 2006. This will be their first competitive encounter.
The Paraguay vs Australia head to head record is notable for its low-scoring nature: of five meetings, four have produced one goal or fewer in total. That pattern, combined with the tactical stakes of this World Cup group decider, supports the case for cautious, defence-first football on Thursday evening.
Team News
Paraguay head into this match with no confirmed absentees, though the squad reflects a careful blend of experience and youth. Captain Gustavo Gómez anchors the backline alongside Júnior Alonso and Fabián Balbuena, with the veteran goalkeeper Gatito Fernández likely to retain his place between the posts. Miguel Almirón remains the creative fulcrum in midfield, supported by Andrés Cubas and Ramón Sosa.
Australia have no confirmed suspensions or injuries declared ahead of this match. Goalkeeper Mathew Ryan, one of the squad’s most experienced players, provides leadership at the back. Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe — who scored in the tournament opener against Turkey — are expected to continue their partnership in central midfield, with Nestory Irankunda offering a direct threat in attack. Mathew Leckie brings experience and pressing quality to the forward line.
What has not been publicly confirmed is whether either coach will make changes from the sides that faced the United States. Both managers may look at the pace of their wider attacking options given the intensity of this match, but squad depth on either side is unlikely to force wholesale rotation.
Predicted Lineups
Paraguay (4-3-3): Gatito Fernández; Juan José Cáceres, Gustavo Gómez (c), Júnior Alonso, Omar Alderete; Miguel Almirón, Andrés Cubas, Diego Gómez; Julio Enciso, Antonio Sanabria, Ramón Sosa.
Australia (4-3-3): Mathew Ryan; Miloš Degenek, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess, Aziz Behich; Connor Metcalfe, Jackson Irvine (c), Aiden O’Neill; Nestory Irankunda, Mathew Leckie, Awer Mabil.
Predicted XIs — squads to be confirmed.
Key Tactical Matchup
The contest between Miguel Almirón and Australia’s central midfield pair of Jackson Irvine and Connor Metcalfe is likely to shape the outcome. Almirón, with 76 caps and 10 international goals to his name, is the engine of Paraguay’s best attacking play; he links defence and attack and has the creativity to unlock a disciplined line. Irvine and Metcalfe — both of FC St. Pauli — offer physicality and pressing intensity that disrupted Turkey effectively in the opener. If Australia’s midfield can limit Almirón’s time and space, Paraguay’s route to goal becomes considerably narrower and the draw or an Australian victory becomes the more likely outcome.
Best Bets
- Under 2.5 Goals at 4/6: Five of the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides have produced two goals or fewer, and both teams are coming off high-pressure matches where defensive solidity was a priority. With qualification on the line, neither coach will encourage an open game.
- Australia to Win at 3/1: Australia’s qualifying record of four wins from four, including a victory over Japan, showed a settled and purposeful team. Their clean sheet in beating Turkey 2-0 at this tournament adds further weight. At 3/1, there is genuine value in backing T. Popovic’s side to progress as group runners-up.
- Jackson Irvine Anytime Scorer: Irvine has scored three goals in recent competitive matches and is a consistent attacking contributor from midfield. With Australia needing a result, the captain is likely to arrive late into the box from set pieces and transitions.
- Draw at 5/4: Both sides are level on points and both carry the risk of elimination. A draw advances Australia but may not be enough for Paraguay given their inferior goal difference — which may encourage Paraguay to push forward in a way that opens the game up. This remains a credible result and the pricing reflects that uncertainty.
Odds Across Operators
Best available prices from leading operators ahead of the Paraguay vs Australia betting odds market:
| Outcome | Best Price |
|---|---|
| Paraguay Win | 2/1 |
| Draw | 5/4 |
| Australia Win | 3/1 |
| Over 2 Goals | 5/4 |
| Under 2 Goals | 4/6 |
Prices sourced from a survey of leading operators and subject to change. Check the best available price before placing.
How to Watch and How to Bet
How to Watch
The match is broadcast live in the United Kingdom on ITV and ITVX, with kick-off at 02:00 BST on Friday 26 June. ITVX streams the match free-to-air for UK viewers. Viewers in Australia can watch on SBS and Optus Sport.
How to Bet
To place a wager on this match through a licensed UK operator, follow these steps:
- Log in to your existing account or register with a licensed UK operator.
- Complete identity verification if prompted (standard KYC process).
- Navigate to the Football section and select World Cup 2026.
- Select Group D and find Paraguay vs Australia (25 June).
- Choose your market — match result, goals, correct score, or bet builder.
- Enter your stake and review the potential return.
- Confirm the bet via your account’s confirmation screen.
- Check the market again close to kick-off, as team news or lineup changes may move prices.
Responsible Gambling
Betting should be treated as entertainment, not a source of income. Always set a budget before placing any wager and never stake money you cannot afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling habits or those of someone you know, free and confidential support is available from BeGambleAware and GamCare. Both organisations offer 24-hour helplines, online chat, and self-help tools.
UK-licensed operators are required to offer account tools including deposit limits, cooling-off periods, and self-exclusion. Use these tools proactively to keep gambling in control.
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