Esports Prediction Markets Could Come To UK

Adam Roarty, Senior Editor

Last Updated: 08/09/2026

UK prediction market regulations could change to allow residents to access platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, including for esports events.

Currently, popular US platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are blocked in the country, but users are increasingly accessing the sites through VPNs.

As a result, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is weighing up lifting the ban on the products. Companies may, however, require gambling licenses to offer esports markets on their platforms.

UK law prohibits binary trading options

The FCA introduced a ban on binary options trading in 2019. The regulator cited concerns that customers could incur heavy losses due to a misunderstanding of risks.

Most markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are based on predicting ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on whether an event will occur. Even for betting on esports matches with only two outcomes, Kalshi lets users predict ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on whether each team will win.

Multiple stakeholders are lobbying the FCA to change its rules, given the surge in British citizens already trading on the sites.

“It’s like most prohibitions — they are largely ineffective. The concerning thing is that regulators who have an obligation to prevent consumer harm are by their actions effectively driving consumers to operators with no regulatory standards at all,” a source told The Times.

Esports markets will likely need gambling license

If the FCA relaxes the rules on binary options trading, this could give UK users access to a wide range of markets. However, sports markets, including esports, and election markets are likely to require a gambling license.

States in the US also claim that sports prediction markets should require a gambling license, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) says it has official jurisdiction over the industry.

The federal agency has sued state regulators who are threatening to take action against licensed companies, mainly Kalshi.

There is unlikely to be the same power struggle between the FCA and the UK Gambling Commission over who regulates prediction markets. However, the blurred lines between financial products and gambling could pose challenges for licensing.

Peer-to-peer betting exchanges, such as Betfair, have always been subject to a gambling label and require licenses from the Commission.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction market platforms have so far been unwilling to apply for gambling licenses in the US.  Doing so in the UK could be used against them in the many court cases spread across states in America. The issue looks set to be decided in the Supreme Court with no clear outcome as yet.

Esports prediction markets growing fast in volume

The launch of sports markets last year saw prediction markets explode in the US. The rise has been largely driven by sports markets, which account for roughly 85% of all trading.

At Polymarket, NFL matches attract the most interest, averaging $5.2 million in trading volume per match. NBA and MLB also see high volumes of around $4 million, with the NHL at around $3 million.

Major esports events are not far behind. League of Legends matches averaged $1.2 million in trading, followed by CS2 at just under $1 million, according to data from Doc’s Sports. Polymarket has also partnered with BLAST to further promote its esports markets.

It is important to note that volume is not the same as bets placed, as it counts both sides of the trade. Prediction markets work in terms of volume of contracts traded. Every contract is valued at $1, but a user buys the contract for less than that.

For example, in the below match at Kalshi, Falcons Esports are given a 49% chance of winning. That means a user buys a contract at a price of $0.49, but in volume terms, that equals $1.

Either way, prediction markets are seeing a lot of attention in the US. Whether they make it over to the UK in the same format remains to be seen.

Adam Roarty, Senior Editor

Adam has worked as a writer and editor for five years on sites such as CasinoBeats, OddsChecker, Esports.net, Esports Insider and Gambling Industry News. Adam uses his experience in the gambling and gaming adjacent industries to focus on emerging stories at the intersection of esports, culture and gambling.

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