After a Group Stage full of unpredictability, the Playoff bracket for BLAST Open Porto 2026 is set. Of the 16 teams that began the Group Stage in Copenhagen, six have earned a chance to compete at the Super Bock Arena for a share of the huge $1.1 million prize pool.
Taking place from September 4th to 6th, the remaining powerhouse rosters will battle to take home one of the most open Counter-Strike 2 tournaments of the year. But which team has the best chance to lift the trophy?
Here are all the runners and riders before the latest chapter of the Tier 1 calendar begins.
Can G2 Esports clip Team Falcons’ wings?
G2 Esports has been on the cusp of breaking into the world’s elite for some time. Thanks to Nikita ‘HeavyGod’ Martynenko’s phenomenal 1.61 rating against NAVI and a 1.46 rating in a victory over Aurora Gaming, the leader of the G2 Army has hit scintillating form with both the AWP and rifle in hand.
Since joining from Team Liquid in March, Guy ‘NertZ’ Iluz has slotted into the team well. His pistol prowess is frequently on show, giving G2 the upper hand in the early stages of matches.
NERTZ HAS ARRIVED 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/yNOiMtKNGG
— G2 CS (@G2CSGO) August 30, 2026
G2 Esports could give Falcons a real test
At 5/4 (2.25) with an implied probability of 44.4% to topple the IEM Cologne Major champions, G2 could spring a surprise against a Team Falcons side that has shown some signs of vulnerability.
An early elimination from the Esports World Cup raised questions surrounding Team Falcons’ ability to establish an era of dominance. Having required all three maps to beat Lynn Vision Gaming and Legacy, gaps remain in both their T and CT sides.
Despite those flaws, Ilya ‘m0NESY’ Osipov continues to excel. A 1.56 rating against Legacy and two incredible clutches guided Team Falcons to the Playoffs. Even in defeat to MOUZ during the final upper-bracket match, m0NESY remained near the top of the scoreboard, posting a respectable 1.02 rating and 34 frags.
🚨 Monesy best clutch of turnament❗️
Clean 1v3 clutch for Playoff❗️ pic.twitter.com/TQhbHjm9NE
— Mare ⇆ (@Kercma2023) August 29, 2026
Team Falcons remain favourites despite Group Stage flaws
Priced at 4/7 (1.57) across several UK betting sites, Falcons remain the favourites with a 63.6% implied probability of reaching the Semifinals. Given their inability to secure a 2–0 sweep so far, it’s worth considering the Over 2.5 maps market priced at 5/6 (1.83) alongside a potential match winner.
Whoever wins this Quarterfinal will have the daunting task of facing Team Spirit. With Danil ‘Donk’ Kryshkovets firing on all cylinders, it will take a special performance for G2 or Falcons to make it into the Grand Final.
GET DONKED
An ACE for the @Team__Spirit star in the pistol 🔫 #BLASTPremier pic.twitter.com/pH1cGeBErB
— BLAST Premier 💥 (@BLASTPremier) August 26, 2026
Can FURIA bring the Team Vitality era to an end?
Team Vitality dominated the first half of 2026 with five Tier 1 victories in a row. Now, the era of dominance is under threat as several teams begin to close the gap. With William ‘Mezii’ Merriman taking paternity leave, ex-NAVI rifler and MOUZ stand-in Justinas ‘jL’ Lekavič looks to help guide the French organisation to another victory.
A defeat to Inner Circle in the Group Stage was a rare anomaly for superstar AWPer Mathieu ‘ZywOo’ Herbaut. Rather than topping the scoreboard, he ended the 2–0 loss with 58.4 ADR and a rating of 0.78, almost a new career low.
Vitality look vulnerable without their full-strength roster
The French monster roared back into life during Vitality’s 2–1 victory over Legacy. Displaying incredible versatility with a sniper and a rifle in hand, ZywOo returned to the top of the scoreboard with 56 frags across the three maps and a respectable 1.19 rating.
THE WOO ACTIVATED ✅ #BLASTPremier @zywoo pic.twitter.com/vBX3qEynVY
— BLAST Premier 💥 (@BLASTPremier) August 30, 2026
Momentum continued to build for ZywOo and Vitality against FUT Esports in a do-or-die Group Stage clash. A 1v3 clutch on Anubis set the tone in a map where both Dan ‘apEX’ Madesclaire and jL delivered a wealth of impact in pivotal moments.
Even with a substitute, Vitality heads into the Quarterfinals as the favourite at 8/15 (1.53), with a 65.2% implied probability of advancing to face MOUZ in the next round.
Coming in clutch as he always does 😎 #BLASTPremier @zywoo pic.twitter.com/CkOLdwbCdX
— BLAST Premier 💥 (@BLASTPremier) August 31, 2026
FURIA could punish an inconsistent Vitality
For FURIA, BLAST Open Porto 2026 is another chance to give Gabriel ‘FalleN’ Toledo a fitting sendoff before he retires at the end of the year. The Brazilian organisation delivered the pain against paiN Gaming thanks to a stellar showing from Mareks ‘YEKINDAR’ Galinskis, who ended the 2–0 sweep with 113.6 ADR and a 1.64 rating.
Against M80, Kaike ‘KSCERATO’ Cerato took centre stage. With superior rifling, the Brazilian scored 50 frags across Cache and Dust2, 14 more than Danil ‘molodoy’ Golubenko, who finished with 36.
.@kscerato: “But I think I f**ked them right” 😂#BLASTPremier pic.twitter.com/vst9p8oJ39
— BLAST Premier 💥 (@BLASTPremier) August 28, 2026
FURIA will need another KSCERATO masterclass
FURIA couldn’t put the brakes on the Team Spirit train in the Upper Bracket Final, losing 2–0. Nonetheless, the IEM Cologne Major runners-up still advanced to the Playoffs and remain in contention for the trophy.
At 11/8 (2.38), with a 42.1% implied probability of taking down the once-dominant force in Counter-Strike esports, FURIA will need to conjure up some more KSCERATO magic if they plan on going any further in Porto.
Why Team Spirit are our pick to win BLAST Open Porto 2026
With a handful of teams hitting their stride, the most open tournament of the year so far becomes even more challenging to predict. However, it’s hard to look past Team Spirit taking outright victory and building on its EWC triumph.
Donk continues to demonstrate why he’s considered the world’s best Counter-Strike player, and with four more high-calibre players by his side, the Team Spirit era could be about to begin.
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